Mr. Sunshine here with more awesome news!

Blogged under End Of World, Journal Entry, News by Kris Kane on Saturday 3 October 2009 at 1:17 pm

Ok, remember (you probably didn’t read it) that post I did on Wednesday about omg end of word swine flu shit? Specifically the part about how the CDC’s flu prediction methods were pretty much pin the tail on the number bullshit, and probably bullshit in the “wow is that a lowball” direction?

Well, even those bullshit low ass estimates are fun:

Based on the CDC’s model and expert predictions of a relatively mild H1N1 strain that could sicken up to 35 percent of Americans, the study found that 15 states would be at or exceed hospital bed capacity.  These include Arizona (117%), California (125%), Connecticut (148%), Delaware (203%), Hawaii (143%), Maryland (143%), Massachusetts (110%), Nevada (137%), New Jersey (101%), New York (108%), Oregon (107%), Rhode Island (143%), Vermont (108%), Virginia (100%) and Washington (107%).

Twelve more states would be between 75-99% of capacity (and seriously, 99%? That’s pretty much the same fucking thing as 100% in this case, isn’t it?).

My plans have changed from buying a coffin if I get sick to just not getting sick. I’m tougher than this fucking thing, but be forewarned: cough in my presence and I’ll shoot you in self defense.

Full article here with more scary numbers.

Cop Shoots Homeowner. Six Times. In the Back. Tries to Cover It Up.

Blogged under Commentary, Journal Entry, Media, News by Kris Kane on Friday 2 October 2009 at 5:12 pm

Not much more to say on this one, other than I’m not sure which is the greater emotion: fury or despair.

A homeowner says a Phoenix police officer shot him six times in the back during a 911 home-invasion call, and the 911 tape recorded the officer’s partner saying, “That’s all right. Don’t worry about it. I got your back. … We clear?” The family says the officers were not aware that the 911 call was still recording as they spoke about covering up the shooting.

Full article here.

Forced Update

Blogged under Journal Entry, News, Posted from a mobile device by Kris Kane on Wednesday 30 September 2009 at 4:37 pm

Imagine I’m sitting in the student union at American University holding a gun to my own head forcing myself to write this, because effectively that’s what I’m doing. I can’t concentrate on anything, can’t take speed adderall because coke (zero, the black stuff in plastic bottles) costs $1.20 per liter (and come the fuck on) and I refuse to sit here and not do anything. So. Now that the stage is set for a scintillating read, I’m sure you’ll continue with bated breath.

H1N1 (to be an overly accurate horse’s ass, 2009 A (H1N1)) is on my mind. I have asthma. My father has COPD (like emphysema, only doctors can make you feel stupid by speaking alphabet soup to you). If either of us catches this swine flu shit, odds are not good. Probably slightly better for me (I’m 45 years younger), but you know? Not really great for either of us. Well, depending on who you believe. The WHO and the CDC have contradicted themselves on the issue, and the data sets they’re using are pretty flawed anyway.

More data out there than I care to go into, but the CDC, for instance, is tracking “confirmed and probable” cases. No distinction made between the two. That’s like the difference between Jim Bob saw a possum and Jim Bob thinks he saw a possum.

In July, the CDC said 40% of all Americans were likely to be infected with swine flu. That’s a big fucking number. How does the CDC determine these numbers? As it turns out, they might as well be guessing how many jelly beans are in a jar.

Quoting from Pundita (way back in May of this year):

The CDC has no idea how many deaths there are each year from the flu because the number is a computer-generated guess based on mathematical modeling — a model that’s been used for more than 40 years, and which needs serious updating.

As the CDC’s spokesman, Curtis Allen admitted a few years ago to medical journalist Kelly O’Meara, it’s not a “real” number. He told her, “There are a couple problems with determining the number of deaths related to the flu because most people don’t die from the influenza…We don’t know exactly how many people get the flu each year because it’s not a reportable disease and most physicians don’t do the test [nasal swab] to indicate whether it’s influenza.”

However, using the CDC’s own data, O’Meara managed to turn up that, “The greatest number of actual influenza deaths recorded since 1979 were 3,006 in 1981.”

That’s recorded deaths, not actual deaths, so who fucking knows. The number is bound to be higher, especially among infants, the elderly, and the “immuno-compromised” which is a hell of a word. Most flu deaths are probably attributed to pneumonia.

From Deirdre Imus writing for The Huffington Post in July:

Influenza is notoriously hard to predict, and some experts have shied away from a forecast. At a CDC swine flu briefing Friday, one official declined to answer repeated questions about her agency’s own estimate.

(That article I link to is worth reading as it makes you realize the CDC might be working just about as well as FEMA, and swine flu just might become that agency’s Katrina Event).

Internationally, the WHO really isn’t offering much in the way of comfort, either. The WHO declared swine flu as a phase 4 pandemic on 27 April of this year (a Monday). By Wednesday of that week, it was a phase 5 on WHO’s hit parade. It reached maturity at phase 6 (there is no phase 7) on 11 June. Based on what? Country-by-country reporting of the number of cases.

We’ve already seen how reliable that is in the US. Maybe other (smaller) European countries have better data collection and reporting systems (Jean Pierre definitely saw a possum), but I can’t imagine most of the second and third world countries providing much useful data (not a condemnation—they’re beleaguered, that’s all I’m saying).

In July, the WHO stated that “as many as two billion people could become infected.” Could? Awesome. I could shit myself if that’s wrong in a bad direction. That number would be a global analog to the influenza epidemic of 1918, which killed a third of the population of Europe (two bil’s about a third of the planet). In our much more crowded, connected, New York-to-Tokyo-to-Rome, world, this fucking thing could spread like … the common cold.

However, in August, the WHO said the symptoms of swine flu were usually no more severe than “regular” flu, and that most people who contracted it would recover. Cool! Crisis over!

Well uh maybe not. Before announcing swine flu was like regular flu, only bacon flavored, the WHO announced they intended to stop publishing data on the course of the pandemic, but would keep everyone informed when another country caught it.

WHO will no longer issue the global tables showing the numbers of confirmed cases for all countries. However, as part of continued efforts to document the global spread of the H1N1 pandemic, regular updates will be provided describing the situation in the newly affected countries. WHO will continue to request that these countries report the first confirmed cases and, as far as feasible, provide weekly aggregated case numbers and descriptive epidemiology of the early cases.

That doesn’t make a whole lot of fucking sense to me, but it could be consistent with a  “this data is useless and we’re not even sure what it means” situation. It’s a little troubling that they’re basically saying “let us know when you get it and how the early cases go, but other than that, we’ll call you.” Troubling because the latest research I’ve read on it (which may not be the latest research) indicates swine flu may have a mortality rate comparable to avian flu, because the two behave the same way (except for the whole swine flu being a fuck of a lot easier to catch thing). And what is the WHO basing the statement “most people who contract it will recover” on? Positive thinking? If they don’t track the later stages of the disease, we might be looking back on a world depopulated by “pneumonia.”

There’s a lot of other information out there, a lot of it goofy, but there’s enough credible material and second-hand “this is a weird thing I heard from my doctor” rumors floating around (here’s a good one: people in the UK are apparently being told, by NHS, not to go to their doctor if they think they may have swine flu. WAT?) to make me really wonder if we’re looking down the barrel of something that may be a hell of a lot more serious than we’re being told. And just maybe we’re not being told because it’s a hell of a lot worse than the WHO, CDC, etc. can deal with.

It’s got me worried. Especially since, you know … I have asthma (if you read that last link, you’d know why I’m basically writing my will if I catch this shit).

Will Humans’ Brains Change During Travel in Outer Space? (from dailygalaxy.com, found on digg.com)

Blogged under Commentary, Journal Entry, Media, News by Kris Kane on Wednesday 13 May 2009 at 6:09 pm

“In February, 1971, Apollo 14 astronaut Edgar Mitchell experienced the little understood phenomenon sometimes called the “Overview Effect”. He describes being completely engulfed by a profound sense of universal connectedness. Without warning, he says, a feeing of bliss, timelessness, and connectedness began to overwhelm him.”

read more | digg story

The above inserted with some neat tools digg.com has going on.

One of the comments on digg was along the lines of “they’d better not send religious fundamentalists up there for this study.” I agree, in practice (fundamentalists tend to have pretty much all of their figuring out figured out, and are closed to new ideas). In theory? Nah. Another guy said, in response to that, “if it’s physiological it doesn’t matter.” My characteristically long-winded and probably pedantic reply to both follows.

“I could just say ‘Go watch the second-third of Contact!’ but I do (at least partially) agree with RobertCrumby. Where I disagree is on the exclusion of ‘religious fundies.’ Regardless of whether we agree with them, the perceptions of those with whom we might ideologically differ is as important and illustrative as our own perception, be it secular or spiritual, in trying to measure human reaction when exposed to the immeasurable.

I need to make a dick and/or fart joke after having typed the above. I’ll think of one and get back to you.

And in response to rchargel, it’s a Cartesian philosophical issue, I guess, but unlinking the physiological from psychological or numinous experience seems like trying to tune in a radio station without a radio. We’ve got to use the tools we have to measure the things we can’t see, and spirituality and physiological response might be two words for the same thing. The issue, I think, is one of sequence.

Now that joke may need to involve poo or monkeys. I’m getting out of here before I get in more trouble.”

Still working on the monkey dick/fart/poo joke. Man that is a bad string of words to put slashes between.

I, for one, welcome our rat-brain Overlords

Blogged under Commentary, Media, News, Tech by Kris Kane on Wednesday 13 August 2008 at 8:44 pm

Shit like this always freaks me out, but also fills me with a pale, sickly sort of hope for a better (if creepier) future.

The blob of nerves forming the brain of the robot was taken from the neural cortex in a rat foetus and then treated to dissolve the connections between individual neurons [excerpt taken from here]. (more…)